A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
